A future casting project exploring the possibilities of Blockchain technology applied to future international travel in 2040.
14 weeks, Jan - Apr 2024
International travelers in 2040
Early Millennials reach middle-aged group
Gen Alpha enter the work force
School Team Project (2 people)
Future Casting
During the 14-week studio I was in charge of UX research, STEEPX analysis, service blueprint design, and rapid prototyping. I collaborated with my teammate on future casting, concept development, and overall world building. I created a prototype of the identity scanner for travel checkpoints for the final visualization video.
What does mobility look like under an American context by the time we reach year 2040?
This project focuses on exploring what the future looks like in terms of mobility in relation to different trends and technologies. The outcome of this project is a future casting proposal for a mobility solution with strong world building.
This research project utilizes several tools to create a realistic future informed by current trends. These tools include:
STEEPX analysis
Morphological analysis
CLA (Causal Layered Analysis) mapping
These tools were used to explore future trends, potential touch-points, and public sentiments during the year 2040.
This future casting project is grounded in secondary research. All predictions and ideation expansions were based on desktop research of current trends, technologies, contentious issues, and future predictions by established bodies and organizations including McKinsey, Robb Report, Forrester, Forbes, Science Direct, Millennium Project, Deloitte, WGSN, KPMG International, & the United Nations.
The process in 4 steps:
STEEPX Trend Analysis > Four Futures > Opportunity > CLA Mapping
To create a believable 2040, we employed several steps to build the surrounding world, its trends, technologies and politics. The world building serves as a basis on which our proposed mobility solution can realistically exist.
STEEPX Trend Analysis
I began first with collecting different trends and future predictions from desktop research, then analyzing them with my teammate to identify patterns that could inform what society will be like in 2040.
Social Forces 2040
“Green” literacy and education is standardized and shared by 95% of the global population.
A greater push for social equity is expected.
Technological Forces 2040
Biometric data, “global digital citizenship”, and blockchain security technology may lead to passports and travel visas becoming obsolete.
XR is an essential part of the travel experience as well as itinerary planning.
Economic Forces 2040
Accessibility to mobility is essential for everyone and is no longer gate-kept by the ability to purchase a private vehicle due to shared economy.
Environmental Forces 2040
Energy efficiency measures will continue to grow and proliferate in response to curb 2.7 degrees Celsius of global warming.
Clean energy grid and decentralized mobility will grow.
Political Forces 2040
Global citizenship becomes a growing topic of discussion with identification and national security.
Increased connectivity is expected between urban and rural areas as well as an increased call for “Emergency” mobility.
X-Factors 2040
The fixed-route commute diminishes greatly due to remote work proliferation post-pandemic.
International travel will increase ever more, with more people having family and friends in multiple nations.
Four Futures
Based on our STEEPX analysis, we created four different scenarios that could possibly occur in 2040. We then compared them on ecological sustainability and socioeconomic equality, and selected, according to likelihood by current trends, Progressivist Overconsumption as the basis for world building for this future-casting project.
Sustainable Utopia
The most idealistic outcome, a utopia
Eco Efficient Republic
Most ecologically sustainable, but with little socioeconomic equality
Progressivist Overconsumption
Most socioeconomically equitable, but with low ecological sustainability
Last Resort Desperation
Collapse of both socioeconomic equality and ecological sustainability
Opportunity
Looking at the world under Progressivist Overconsumption, we used morphological analysis, personas, and sketches to refine our area of focus. Our exploration yielded an interesting opportunity afforded by blockchain and the metaverse.
Blockchain Affordances for Travel
Digital identification & multi-point biometric cross-referencing
Blockchain-stored biometric data accessible in medical emergencies
Guiding Trends
Increase in international travel and cultural exchange.
My identity info - my ownership.
Biometric tech is democratized and widely normalized in daily life.
Decentralization is good.
More relatives live across multiple nations.
CLA Mapping
Focusing on blockchain as a means to store identification information for travel purposes, we used Causal Layered Analysis to analyze how this proposal would be perceived in 2040.
Litany
What actually is blockchain technology and how is it used for identity?
Systems
The life support to sustain blockchain
Discourse
How are people talking about blockchain identity in 2040?
Mythos
Societal beliefs as defined in Progressivist Overconsumption
In the project, international travel is the core focus, where we question the need for physical passports and identification, and investigate whether personal identification can be stored using Web3 Blockchain and accessed securely by customs offices during international travel.
Future Casted Benefit 2040
Your digital identity and passport information is stored in blockchain accessible only by multi-point biometric cross-referencing. Traveling is now faster with direct sharing of information between customs.
The United States of Excess/Access - Progressivist Overconsumption
2040 brings forth an age of decentralized information and mobility. Social Equity as a value is at the forefront of government policy, economic reform and infrastructure development in the United States. Ensuring equal access to mobility, opportunities, and technology is the main priority – at the expense of reduced prioritization on environmental sustainability.Sustainability efforts are seen in hydroponics and ride-sharing, however they are often limited in main urban hubs and not rural areas. Ownership of data becomes a growing point of interest due to increased security risks of Web2.0 platforms. Blockchain is the new inclination for information technology and data security.
Digital Identity Scanner using Blockchain Technology
Our prototype blockchain device is the Digital Identify Scanner. The Digital identity scanner is placed at TSA travel checkpoints in airports and transit stations, replacing the need to bring physical passports and ID cards. Identity information is stored in blockchain and can only be accessed by palm scanning biometric technology. Palm scanning uses infrared light to map the vein patterns in a palm for identification. It is even more secure than fingerprint. Once the person’s ID has been verified and cross referenced, they are free to pass through.
Technological Requirements
Memristor processors to run blockchain efficiently.
Web3 blockchain technology & 7G internet connectivity (1000x 5G).
Multipoint Biometric Cross-referencing Technology including:
Infrared Palm Scanning, Voice Recognition, Eye Tracking, Fingerprint
Personas: Majority population during 2040
Generations:
Millennials (Late career stage, mid 50s) Gen Alpha (Early career stage, mid 20s)
Geographic Location:
Focused on West Coast United States and its international transportation hubs Living in a world with increased global travel & cultural exchange
Considerations:
Older generations will have apprehension towards Web2.0 infrastructure and data ownership. They will struggle to keep up with rapid change.
Younger generations will experience more frequent cases of job burnout and lack of occupational mobility.
Travel though unpredictable due to increased inclement weather patterns, will still be on the rise, especially internationally.
This project was an immense learning opportunity for future casting and what goes into creating a compelling story with believable elements. Through methodical research, analysis, and tools such as STEEPX, Morphological Analysis, and CLA Mapping, I was able to form ideas about the future based on accredited information.
As a case study this was a very fun project to explore identity usage and challenge ideas about current travel systems and identity documentation. However, as a conversation starter about blockchain technology, there is much to explore. Blockchain raises many questions regarding privacy, data access rights, the environmental impact of blockchain technology, and international relations. It is very important to keep these in mind when diving into a new technology, and ensuring it doesn't only serve the needs of the few. This project serves as one way to start thinking about how blockchain technology, in addition to its monetary explorations in the present day, could potentially intervene with global identity issues, migration, and socioeconomic equity.
